Iowa Forecast

PPP Published a poll late last night with lots of details to devine movement amongst the candidates before election night on Tuesday. Assuming every moves who isn't committed, and they move to the 2nd choice candidate that they indicated they would, here is how it will turn out.

Candidate	PPP Poll %	PPP Poll Likely Voters	Switch Away	Switch To	Final %
Paul Sunday	21 %	281	-43	29	20.0 %
Paul Weekend	20 %	268	-41	35	19.6 %
Romney Weekend	19 %	255	-56	49	18.4 %
Santorum	18 %	241	-63	62	17.9 %
Romney Sunday	18 %	241	-54	52	17.9 %
Gingrich	14 %	188	-58	38	12.5 %
Perry	10 %	134	-44	65	11.6 %
Bachmann	8 %	107	-27	44	9.2 %
Huntsmann	4 %	54	-14	16	4.1 %
Roemer	2 %	27	-6	12	2.5 %

The Times They Are Accelerating

Is it just me, or are the frontrunner's boom and bust cycles getting shorter?

All Iowa Polls from polling firms that have been rated by New York Times polling analyst Nate Silver (except for polls from ARG and Insider Advantage which are rated near the bottom). Trends are created using a 3 poll moving average.

Bad Lip Reading

What do Rick Perry, Michelle Bachmann and Michael Bublé have in common? They've been parodied by "Bad Lip Reading." Click here and enjoy a laugh.