Public Policy Polling stands out (among other reasons) because they're not afraid to ask unusual questions like What is God's Approval Rating?
So 4 days ago they asked for suggestions for their South Carolina poll and several people asked them to include the Colbert Referendum which I'm happy to see they took us up on.
So we can now answer the existential question:
Do you think that corporations are people or that only people are people?
2012:
67% of South Carolinians think only people are people
33% are so enslaved to corporations, they think corporations are people too.
While 150 years ago:
60% of slaves were counted as people in the Constitution.
That's progress!
80% Age 30-45: Only people are people
38% Age 65+: Corporations are people too
The young may have a heart, but by the time they reach retirement many have to accept that some people aren't human.
47% Age 18-29 - Corporations are people
With young unemployment around 30%, perhaps they misheard the question as "Corporations are the man."
82% of Ron Paul supporters feel that only people are people, but 38% percent of Newt Gingrich supporters are quite content to let corporations be people as long as the paychecks keep coming.
The poll twice asked people who their favorite candidate was. 15 questions after the first time it was asked, they slipped in Steven Colbert's name just to make trouble.
21% of Santorums supporters dropped him by the time they reached the repeated question. That's Santorum momentum.
Colbert finished above two real candidates Huntsman and Roemer: the only GOP candidates to appear on his show. This gives new meaning to the Colbert Bump!
Showing posts with label Jon Huntsman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jon Huntsman. Show all posts
Monday, January 9, 2012
Friday, January 6, 2012
Indies Vital in New Hampshire
Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman attract many more Independent voters in New Hampshire than Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich. So getting the right mix of Independent voters is very important to accurate polling.
To date, only the last Selzer poll over a month ago and a couple of the Suffolk tracking polls have been near the 50% Indy split which should occur on election day. The daily Suffolk tracking polls have been particularly confusing as they have varied from 37% to 48.5% Indy split.
Why is virtually every poll missing the right mix of Independent voters?
In New Hampshire, undeclared voters (Independents) may vote in the GOP primary Tuesday. Currently they make up 42% of all registered voters in the state. Traditionally, the percent of independent voters in a NH primary when both Democratic and Republican primaries are contested is very similar to the percent of registered independent voters. However, when one party has an unchallenged incumbent (like 1996 with President Clinton or 2004 with President Bush), the percent of independents in the opposing parties primary goes way up. See stats below. % of Registered voters comes from state controlled lists (often reported via news services). The % of actual voters in a primary comes from exit polls.
New Hampshire Independent Voter Percentage
The range of independent turnout for 2012 GOP Primary is based on linear extrapolation from the 1996 and 2004 primaries with the low number assuming a similar ratio of % in the GOP primary vs. Registered Voters from 1996 while the high number assuming a similar ration of % in the Dem Primary vs. Registered Voters from 2004.
Now, what are pollsters using as their ratio of Independents for next Tuesday's contest? What would the difference be if they had a different overall Indy ratio (based on their own candidate specific results by party breakdown)? See below:
Although some pollsters provided Indy vs GOP breakdowns at the poll level, some did not also breakdown splits by candidate by Indy vs. GOP so they have a ?? in the left column.
Those with UNKNOWN may have even excluded ALL non-GOP registered voters as CNN has done for every Iowa poll. Take those polls with a HUGE grain of salt.
To date, only the last Selzer poll over a month ago and a couple of the Suffolk tracking polls have been near the 50% Indy split which should occur on election day. The daily Suffolk tracking polls have been particularly confusing as they have varied from 37% to 48.5% Indy split.
Why is virtually every poll missing the right mix of Independent voters?
In New Hampshire, undeclared voters (Independents) may vote in the GOP primary Tuesday. Currently they make up 42% of all registered voters in the state. Traditionally, the percent of independent voters in a NH primary when both Democratic and Republican primaries are contested is very similar to the percent of registered independent voters. However, when one party has an unchallenged incumbent (like 1996 with President Clinton or 2004 with President Bush), the percent of independents in the opposing parties primary goes way up. See stats below. % of Registered voters comes from state controlled lists (often reported via news services). The % of actual voters in a primary comes from exit polls.
| Year | % of All Voters | % of GOP Primary | % of Dem Primary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 28% | 35% | No Contest |
| 2000 | 38% | 39% | 36% |
| 2004 | 37.7% | No Contest | 52% |
| 2008 | 44.9% | 37% | 44% |
| 2012 | 40.7% | 51-56%?? | No Contest |
The range of independent turnout for 2012 GOP Primary is based on linear extrapolation from the 1996 and 2004 primaries with the low number assuming a similar ratio of % in the GOP primary vs. Registered Voters from 1996 while the high number assuming a similar ration of % in the Dem Primary vs. Registered Voters from 2004.
Now, what are pollsters using as their ratio of Independents for next Tuesday's contest? What would the difference be if they had a different overall Indy ratio (based on their own candidate specific results by party breakdown)? See below:
| Pollster | % of Independents | Poll's Romney Lead | Romney Lead w/56% Indies |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBC/Marist | 38% | 20% | 16% |
| Magellan | 39% | 20% | ?? |
| PPP | 42% | 17% | 13% |
| Suffolk | 41.1% | 19.8% | 17.7% |
| UNH/Boston Globe | 43% | 22% | 19% |
| UNH/WMUR | 43% | 24% | 22% |
| ARG | 44% | 19% | 14% |
| Selzer/Bloomberg | 53% | 23% | ?? |
| Rasmussen | UNKNOWN | 24% | ?? |
| CNN/Time | UNKNOWN | 27% | ?? |
| Zogby/Washington Times | UNKNOWN | 14% | ?? |
Although some pollsters provided Indy vs GOP breakdowns at the poll level, some did not also breakdown splits by candidate by Indy vs. GOP so they have a ?? in the left column.
Those with UNKNOWN may have even excluded ALL non-GOP registered voters as CNN has done for every Iowa poll. Take those polls with a HUGE grain of salt.
Monday, January 2, 2012
Iowa Forecast
PPP Published a poll late last night with lots of details to devine movement amongst the candidates before election night on Tuesday. Assuming every moves who isn't committed, and they move to the 2nd choice candidate that they indicated they would, here is how it will turn out.
| Candidate | PPP Poll % | PPP Poll Likely Voters |
Switch Away | Switch To | Final % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Sunday | 21 % | 281 | -43 | 29 | 20.0 % |
| Paul Weekend | 20 % | 268 | -41 | 35 | 19.6 % |
| Romney Weekend | 19 % | 255 | -56 | 49 | 18.4 % |
| Santorum | 18 % | 241 | -63 | 62 | 17.9 % |
| Romney Sunday | 18 % | 241 | -54 | 52 | 17.9 % |
| Gingrich | 14 % | 188 | -58 | 38 | 12.5 % |
| Perry | 10 % | 134 | -44 | 65 | 11.6 % |
| Bachmann | 8 % | 107 | -27 | 44 | 9.2 % |
| Huntsmann | 4 % | 54 | -14 | 16 | 4.1 % |
| Roemer | 2 % | 27 | -6 | 12 | 2.5 % |
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