In the Nebraska caucus, 20% (2900/14340) of Hillary's votes were mail-in.
In the Wyoming caucus, 54% of Hillary's votes in 12 counties representing 74% of all delegates
were mail-in.
The photo below is in Casper, Natrona county, the second largest caucus.
| County | Hillary Vote % | Hillary Votes | Hillary Mail-In Votes | Hillary Mail-In % | Hillary's Delegates | All Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laramie | 51.5% | 731 | 402 | 55% | 26 | 51 |
| Natrona | 54.1% | 357 | 270 | 75.6% | 20 | 38 |
| Albany | 25.3% | 316 | 125 | 39.6% | 8 | 33 |
| Sweetwater | 46.6% | 222 | 133 | 59.9% | 10 | 22 |
| Fremont | 51.1% | 233 | 91 | 39.1% | 10 | 20 |
| Sheridan | 53.3% | 203 | 95 | 53.3% | 7 | 14 |
| Uinta | 40.3% | 73 | 37 | 50.7% | 4 | 9 |
| Carbon | 59.5% | 75 | 56 | 74.7% | 4 | 7 |
| Sublette | 32.8% | 41 | 14 | 34.1% | 1 | 4 |
| Washakie | 58.8% | 30 | 15 | 50% | 2 | 3 |
| Platte | 39.1% | 25 | 12 | 48% | 1 | 3 |
| Johnson | 40.7% | 27 | 11 | 40.7% | 1 | 2 |
| 7 Counties w/vote totals but no mail-in numbers | 37.8% | 594 | ? | ? | 22 | 59 |
| 4 Other counties | ? | ? | ? | ? | 8 | 15 |
| Statewide | ? | ? | ? | ? | 124 | 280 |
Hillary won 6 of those 12 counties and she won 7 to 10 statewide.
I am lacking mail-in data on the other unnamed Wyoming counties.
If you were at one of the other county caucuses and have mail-in totals, please contact me
Why the difference?
From CNN: "A Clinton campaign aide said their 'secret sauce' in Wyoming was the state's onerous vote-by-mail rules that required anyone voting by mail to have voted as a Democrat in the 2014 midterms."
What is curious about that statement is that I have not yet found any evidence of that rule. Was this false rule leaked to put journalists on to the wrong trail? I don't know, particularly because CNN didn't give the name of the person to ask this.
There is no statistically valid reason why 54% of Hillary voters would be absentee while it is 27% for the Bernie's.
If in 12 counties she had had only 20% mail-in in those and the rest of the mail-ins became no-shows, Bernie would have won state delegates by 31 pts (instead of by 11), had a 5-3 national delegate margin now and a better than even chance to win 4 out of 6 more national delegates at the Wyoming state convention.
| County | Hillary Vote % | Hillary Votes | Hillary Mail-In Votes | Hillary Mail-In % | Hillary's Delegates | All Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laramie | 37.4% | 411 | 82 | 20% | 19 | 51 |
| Natrona | 26.5% | 109 | 22 | 20.2% | 10 | 38 |
| Albany | 20.4% | 239 | 48 | 20.1% | 7 | 33 |
| Sweetwater | 30.4% | 111 | 22 | 19.8% | 7 | 22 |
| Fremont | 44.4% | 178 | 36 | 20.2% | 9 | 20 |
| Sheridan | 43.1% | 135 | 27 | 20% | 6 | 14 |
| Uinta | 29.4% | 45 | 9 | 20% | 3 | 9 |
| Carbon | 32% | 24 | 5 | 20.8% | 4 | 7 |
| Sublette | 28.8% | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 1 | 4 |
| Washakie | 47.5% | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 1 | 3 |
| Platte | 29.1% | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 1 | 3 |
| Johnson | 30.3% | 20 | 4 | 20% | 1 | 2 |
| 7 Counties w/vote totals but no mail-in numbers | 37.8% | 594 | ? | ? | 22 | 59 |
| 4 Other counties | ? | ? | ? | ? | 8 | 15 |
| Statewide | ? | ? | ? | ? | 97 | 280 |
In this more normal scenario, Hillary Supporters win zero counties (plus 1 to 4 counties where no votes are known).
So the 11% win giving a 7-7 delegate tie would have been
a 31% win giving a 9-5 delegate advantage to Bernie Supporters.
And this is just with these twelve counties. If the other counties follow the same pattern it would have been a 37% win giving Bernie Supporters a 10-4 advantage.
All of which matters a lot to the media and pundits, even the ones who keep trying to write off Bernie Sanders' campaign.
P.S. I also have data on Bernie Supporter mail-in's in those twelve counties. It was 26.5%.
WHAT TO DO
What needs to be done is an audit of the mail-in's to find out which are valid. Wyoming has clear rules/restrictions on absentee ballots.
Sign this petition on MoveOn (and ask MoveOn at the top of the page to endorse it too)
Another petition is on WhiteHouse.Gov (there may be others, so let me know). Go and sign them.
Also, if you have data on the other 11 counties, let me know.
#RecountVerify surrogate voter info on form w WY voter rolls. I sent your article to votetracker@berniesanders.com. If you want to send info put PROBLEM in subject line.
ReplyDeleteThank you!
ReplyDeleteIn Laramie County, you'd have to assume ALL 621 surrogates were 55+ y/o, for Clinton to win by a 65% margin, which is a HIGH margin compared to other states' polling data (e.g. WI).
ReplyDeleteYeah, and that unlikelihood would have to repeat itself in county after county.
DeleteHere in Casper, we had PLENTY of 55+ voters who were for Bernie. That photo above from Casper only shows about half of the Bernie crowd, and we WAY outnumbered the Hillary voters, and we Bernie supporters were from pretty much every demographic Casper has to offer.
DeleteWhen you say Mail-in votes do you mean surrogate ballots? In Laramie I thought there were 629 of these total: http://www.nomarket.org/results-of-the-wyoming-caucus-2016/
ReplyDeleteAre we talking about the same thing? thx.
surrogate, mail-in, absentee... all the same thing.
Delete629 in Laramie of which 625 were for Clinton.
The photo in this blog post shows the the Clinton supporters. Does this look like 100 or so people or 300 people. I think the Wyoming Eagle's numbers are WAY off. I have sent a tweet to the reporter to explain.
The photo came from this tweet
https://twitter.com/mrholshoe/status/718900538453045248
I remember that photo being shared on twitter. The aisle separates the much larger contingent of people for Bernie from the Hillary support. I count a group in the 50's for the Hillary side. I think this is Laramie, but there's a number of people who would missing since 106 or so people where there in the final count.
DeleteActually I had a brain fart since I clearly (and correctly) tagged it in my main post as being Casper, WY. I have a photo somewhere of Laramie buried in some tweet or somewhere. I need to dig it up and post it (while I do a gazillion other things) ;-)
DeleteHere is s Whitehouse petition
ReplyDeletehttps://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/investigate-clinton-surrogate-voting-fraud-wyoming
Thanks. I just signed it.
ReplyDeleteI'm glad someone with background in data science is checking this out. I'm just a software engineer but the numbers and the results that came out on Saturday do not sit well with me, and all I want at this point is for those surrogate ballots to be audited and ensure they pass basic sanity checks like having different handwriting, not all one pen color, etc.
ReplyDeleteI've shared this with multiple Bernie FB groups, trying to bring more signatures to the petition. Let me know if there is anything else you want me to help spread the word on.
Thank you. I don't know much more than you do about what to do besides signing petitions. I just try to provide data to others who can take it from there.
DeleteIf you happen to know someone (6 degrees... you never know) who went to a Wyoming Caucus, I still want to get the other counties' information plus it is always good to get a verification (yes I agree with number X from county Y that you posted) to make sure everything is all good.
Other than that, you know there is a slack channel for software engineers that want to help Bernie's campaign.
https://codersforsanders.slack.com/
Maybe you'll be inspired to contribute your unique talents there or at least meet some other interesting folks that do what you do.
Best,
Jeff
"There is no statistically valid reason why 70+% of voters would be absentee for one candidate and 20% for the other. With this size sample the odds are too tiny to bother calculating."
ReplyDeleteThere is a valid reason, but it is not statistical. You presume the preferences of mail-in voters are similar to the preferences other voters. A simpler explanation of all this is that mail-in voters represent a different demographic -- one that happens not to feel the Bern.
What demographic evidence do you have of this?
DeleteMy opinion on demographics is that the math-challenged data journalists and pundits have been trotting out this theme to fit a pre-conceived narrative (that helps Clinton) and they regularly ignore contrary evidence to it. The only consistent difference in demographics has been over 65 and under 30. But I haven't seen any evidence that these two age groups combined has such a large affect on absentee ballots.
In WA State we had around 20% surrogate as well, but I believe they mirrored the in-person voting patterns.
ReplyDeleteDo you have a source for that info? I am a Washington precinct delegate and I would like to know that data.
DeleteI am so confused! How does Hilary get away with this? What can we do we are the 99% all we can do is sign petitions? And then revolt I suppose!
ReplyDeleteFremont county had I believe 141 surrogate ballots. Hillary won the county 232-223. We didn't have a large area to separate like Casper did, but from my estimations we outnumbered Hillary Supporters what looked like almost 2-1
ReplyDeleteHi Willi,
DeleteThanks for this info. Do you have a split on those 141 by candidate? Or do you know some who might and can ask them or give me info so I can contact them? Thanks! Fremont is one of the 3 biggest outstanding counties so this would help a lot to get to a final or close to complete statewide stat.
Kevin Wilson might Jeff,
DeleteHe was our Bernie team lead, I asked a few people for the actual breakdown and nobody knew, but he made the comment that he was arguing about a ballot, so we would have lost by 8 instead of 9. I'll email you his contact info.
The DNC was already purchased by the $hillary's millionaire donors in 2015 by massive bundled giving to 37 state Democratic parties, securing the super delegates, creating voter supression, criminal switching of party affiliations by fraudulent computer manipulation, disappearing ballots (both fresh & voted), reduced polling places especially in minority districts, etc. This means that 1/3 to 1/2 of the votes and delegates were secured for the $hillary prior to anyone voting in any primary or attending a party caucus. American is not, and has never been a democracy. America is not now a Democratic Republic because the oligarchy and corporate donations have stolen the process of candidate selection. The $hillary republicrat knows how to successfully manipulate the system. Bernie Sanders is doing an end run with millions of American individual small donations. But, the system is rigged. It is almost impossible to nominate Bernie Sanders with 1/3 of the delegates bought & paid for prior to the primary. The establishment doesn't want change. Bernie Sanders is a revolution in what was put in place by the founding fathers: "selection of political leaders only by male landowners with slaves." We will change nothing without the repeal of several laws, without modifying the constitution, without extremely high numbers of liberal citizens voting, and probably still need to massively write in Bernie Sanders to become President of the United States.
ReplyDeleteThank you so very much for posting this! I attended the caucus in Green River,Wyoming for Sweetwater County and will be sharing this to my Google+ stream! Just a few days before the caucus, I received one of the surrogate forms in the mail, which was sent by Bill Clinton along with a letter praising his wife and a return envelope, already addressed to the Wyoming Democratic Party! Since I am a Bernie supporter, I wouldn't have missed the caucus if I had to crawl on my hands and knees, and I instantly recognized it as a ploy to get the older voters to vote for Clinton, I saved the whole thing an and keeping it for evidence! One of my friends who is in her 80s got one and threw it in the trash (I am 72) and she said the same thing I did, they were trying to use Bill Clinton sending out the envelope as a way of influencing votes, because it came from a former president! Now that the caucus is over, I am going to change my registration to Independent, because this also shows that the State Democratic Party is complicit in this nasty piece of work! I'm quite sure it has a lot to do with the $64,100 that Hillary's superpack donors gave to the state party, which in the old days would have been called a bribe, but the crooks have made it legal! I'm going to keep pursuing this also, I will not let them screw us, we have worked to hard to get Bernie the recognition he deserves! I signed both petitions and am going to continue raising hell about this! My gratitude to you for posting this!
ReplyDeleteCan you share what address was used for "Wyoming Democratic Party"? I wanted to ensure it was not a location created by Bill Clinton/HRC camp to "toss aside" the Bernie ballots before they forward the ballots to the real Wyoming Democratic Party. Thanks in advance!
DeleteYes, on the envelope I received, it was William J. Clinton, P.O. Box 1972, Cheyenne, WY 82003. On the return envelope which has my name and address pre-printed on it, it is: Wyoming Democratic Party, P.O.Box 1972, Cheyenne, WY 82003. I didn't realize they were exactly the same until I read your comment! I would love to know what you find out! ;-))
DeleteI've heard and seen bits here and there on FB groups, reddit discussions, this blog post we're on right now - trying to get a full picture myself :) One of those tidbits is about someone feeling uneasy about the return envelope being addressed to the same place the letter from WJC came from. This is very interesting! So the surrogate ballots goes back to the Wyoming dem party hq (the address appears to be legitimate, based on what I see at bottom of this website: http://www.wyodems.org/
ReplyDeleteOne last question - was the return envelope postage pre-paid? I'd like to explore into legality of doing this, because I thought "gifts", even for something as small as postage, should be off-limits, but rules might be different for Democratic primaries/caucus vs general election.
And THANK YOU for answering!
On the return envelope it would require the sender to put a stamp on it! But on the envelope I received from William J. Clinton, the postage square reads like this: FIRST CLASS, U.S.POSTAGE, PAID, WC MLG The commas denote lines, so the postage block contained 4 lines. I am pretty sure the WC stands for William Clinton and I am trying to find out what MLG stands for! If I find out anything I will let you know by reply! ;-))
ReplyDeletehere where you find it is a Hillary Clinton that here is a photo from abc news when they started using it. Paid for by Hillary Clinton for President. (Union Bug). PRSRT STD. U.S. POSTAGE. PAID. WC MLG. HILLARY CLINTON. A Consistent Record
ReplyDeletehttp://abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/08_02_25_NAFTA_mailer.pdf
Thank you for that link! It is indeed the same as what was on the one I received, the only difference is that on the bottom of the letter from Bill Clinton it says www.HillaryClinton.com and Paid for by Hillary for America inside a box! Yesterday I found out that WLG may stand for Meltzer,Lippe,Goldsteinm LLP but have been unable to connect the two, except for that fact that that LLP is in New York and works with hedge funds, charitable organizations, along with many other things, I'm not knowledgeable enough to know where to look next, but your answer sure helped a lot! I can only speculate that they are all connected in some way, Much appreciated!
DeleteSounds like a lot of creative vote stealing, which mysteriously, whenever it's happened, benefits Hillary. What a lucky coincidence! Are there any adults, journalists working this "flagrant, widespread election fraud" that Mayor DeBlasio reported in an interview right after NY and then? Very little. That's it? She steals it & gets away with it? I thought Gore gave up too easy to Bush when his governor bro Jeb helped him by stopping Florida's vote. Arouse, Americans!!!!
ReplyDeleteDo you also happen to have information on how many mail-in votes Sanders got in those same counties listed in the table? I'm just curious.
ReplyDeleteYes I do and it is statistically (using the chi-squared test) shown that the choice of candidate and the rate of absentee vote is linked. In simpler English, when you know the absentee rate, you can tell which candidate that represents. In even simpler terms, Hillary's campaign cheated.
ReplyDeleteFYI, the absentee rate in Teton county has nothing to do with the candidate. It is entirely because that particular county had a 2 week school vacation with the vote in the middle of that vacation. The other counties had a 1 week vacation. Teton's economy is tourist, and the tourists weren't there, the hotels shut down and people left. But the other much higher absentee rates for Hillary were not due to a real excuse for absenteeism.