In the Nebraska caucus, 20% (2900/14340) of Hillary's votes were mail-in.
In the Wyoming caucus, 54% of Hillary's votes in 12 counties representing 74% of all delegates
were mail-in.
The photo below is in Casper, Natrona county, the second largest caucus.
County | Hillary Vote % | Hillary Votes | Hillary Mail-In Votes | Hillary Mail-In % | Hillary's Delegates | All Delegates |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Laramie | 51.5% | 731 | 402 | 55% | 26 | 51 |
Natrona | 54.1% | 357 | 270 | 75.6% | 20 | 38 |
Albany | 25.3% | 316 | 125 | 39.6% | 8 | 33 |
Sweetwater | 46.6% | 222 | 133 | 59.9% | 10 | 22 |
Fremont | 51.1% | 233 | 91 | 39.1% | 10 | 20 |
Sheridan | 53.3% | 203 | 95 | 53.3% | 7 | 14 |
Uinta | 40.3% | 73 | 37 | 50.7% | 4 | 9 |
Carbon | 59.5% | 75 | 56 | 74.7% | 4 | 7 |
Sublette | 32.8% | 41 | 14 | 34.1% | 1 | 4 |
Washakie | 58.8% | 30 | 15 | 50% | 2 | 3 |
Platte | 39.1% | 25 | 12 | 48% | 1 | 3 |
Johnson | 40.7% | 27 | 11 | 40.7% | 1 | 2 |
7 Counties w/vote totals but no mail-in numbers | 37.8% | 594 | ? | ? | 22 | 59 |
4 Other counties | ? | ? | ? | ? | 8 | 15 |
Statewide | ? | ? | ? | ? | 124 | 280 |
Hillary won 6 of those 12 counties and she won 7 to 10 statewide.
I am lacking mail-in data on the other unnamed Wyoming counties.
If you were at one of the other county caucuses and have mail-in totals, please contact me
Why the difference?
From CNN: "A Clinton campaign aide said their 'secret sauce' in Wyoming was the state's onerous vote-by-mail rules that required anyone voting by mail to have voted as a Democrat in the 2014 midterms."
What is curious about that statement is that I have not yet found any evidence of that rule. Was this false rule leaked to put journalists on to the wrong trail? I don't know, particularly because CNN didn't give the name of the person to ask this.
There is no statistically valid reason why 54% of Hillary voters would be absentee while it is 27% for the Bernie's.
If in 12 counties she had had only 20% mail-in in those and the rest of the mail-ins became no-shows, Bernie would have won state delegates by 31 pts (instead of by 11), had a 5-3 national delegate margin now and a better than even chance to win 4 out of 6 more national delegates at the Wyoming state convention.
County | Hillary Vote % | Hillary Votes | Hillary Mail-In Votes | Hillary Mail-In % | Hillary's Delegates | All Delegates |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Laramie | 37.4% | 411 | 82 | 20% | 19 | 51 |
Natrona | 26.5% | 109 | 22 | 20.2% | 10 | 38 |
Albany | 20.4% | 239 | 48 | 20.1% | 7 | 33 |
Sweetwater | 30.4% | 111 | 22 | 19.8% | 7 | 22 |
Fremont | 44.4% | 178 | 36 | 20.2% | 9 | 20 |
Sheridan | 43.1% | 135 | 27 | 20% | 6 | 14 |
Uinta | 29.4% | 45 | 9 | 20% | 3 | 9 |
Carbon | 32% | 24 | 5 | 20.8% | 4 | 7 |
Sublette | 28.8% | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 1 | 4 |
Washakie | 47.5% | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 1 | 3 |
Platte | 29.1% | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 1 | 3 |
Johnson | 30.3% | 20 | 4 | 20% | 1 | 2 |
7 Counties w/vote totals but no mail-in numbers | 37.8% | 594 | ? | ? | 22 | 59 |
4 Other counties | ? | ? | ? | ? | 8 | 15 |
Statewide | ? | ? | ? | ? | 97 | 280 |
In this more normal scenario, Hillary Supporters win zero counties (plus 1 to 4 counties where no votes are known).
So the 11% win giving a 7-7 delegate tie would have been
a 31% win giving a 9-5 delegate advantage to Bernie Supporters.
And this is just with these twelve counties. If the other counties follow the same pattern it would have been a 37% win giving Bernie Supporters a 10-4 advantage.
All of which matters a lot to the media and pundits, even the ones who keep trying to write off Bernie Sanders' campaign.
P.S. I also have data on Bernie Supporter mail-in's in those twelve counties. It was 26.5%.
WHAT TO DO
What needs to be done is an audit of the mail-in's to find out which are valid. Wyoming has clear rules/restrictions on absentee ballots.
Sign this petition on MoveOn (and ask MoveOn at the top of the page to endorse it too)
Another petition is on WhiteHouse.Gov (there may be others, so let me know). Go and sign them.
Also, if you have data on the other 11 counties, let me know.