Sunday, April 10, 2016

Clinton profits in Wyoming from Zombie absentee ballots?

How did the Clinton supporters turn a probable 31 point and 4 delegate loss into an 11 point and 0 delegate loss? Or a 37 point and 6 delegate loss? Keep reading...

In the Nebraska caucus, 20% (2900/14340) of Hillary's votes were mail-in.

In the Wyoming caucus, 54% of Hillary's votes in 12 counties representing 74% of all delegates
were mail-in.
The photo below is in Casper, Natrona county, the second largest caucus.

Above is a video from Sweetwater county showing the huge disparity in the Hillary Supporters side vs the Bernie Supporter side. Despite that, Hillary Supporters got close with a 10 to 12 delegate decision.

County Hillary Vote % Hillary Votes Hillary Mail-In Votes Hillary Mail-In % Hillary's Delegates All Delegates
Laramie 51.5% 731 402 55% 26 51
Natrona 54.1% 357 270 75.6% 20 38
Albany 25.3% 316 125 39.6% 8 33
Sweetwater 46.6% 222 133 59.9% 10 22
Fremont 51.1% 233 91 39.1% 10 20
Sheridan 53.3% 203 95 53.3% 7 14
Uinta 40.3% 73 37 50.7% 4 9
Carbon 59.5% 75 56 74.7% 4 7
Sublette 32.8% 41 14 34.1% 1 4
Washakie 58.8% 30 15 50% 2 3
Platte 39.1% 25 12 48% 1 3
Johnson 40.7% 27 11 40.7% 1 2
7 Counties w/vote totals but no mail-in numbers 37.8% 594 ? ? 22 59
4 Other counties ? ? ? ? 8 15
Statewide ? ? ? ? 124 280

Hillary won 6 of those 12 counties and she won 7 to 10 statewide.

I am lacking mail-in data on the other unnamed Wyoming counties.
If you were at one of the other county caucuses and have mail-in totals, please contact me

Why the difference?

From CNN: "A Clinton campaign aide said their 'secret sauce' in Wyoming was the state's onerous vote-by-mail rules that required anyone voting by mail to have voted as a Democrat in the 2014 midterms."

What is curious about that statement is that I have not yet found any evidence of that rule. Was this false rule leaked to put journalists on to the wrong trail? I don't know, particularly because CNN didn't give the name of the person to ask this.

There is no statistically valid reason why 54% of Hillary voters would be absentee while it is 27% for the Bernie's.

If in 12 counties she had had only 20% mail-in in those and the rest of the mail-ins became no-shows, Bernie would have won state delegates by 31 pts (instead of by 11), had a 5-3 national delegate margin now and a better than even chance to win 4 out of 6 more national delegates at the Wyoming state convention.

County Hillary Vote % Hillary Votes Hillary Mail-In Votes Hillary Mail-In % Hillary's Delegates All Delegates
Laramie 37.4% 411 82 20% 19 51
Natrona 26.5% 109 22 20.2% 10 38
Albany 20.4%23948 20.1% 7 33
Sweetwater 30.4% 111 22 19.8% 7 22
Fremont 44.4% 178 36 20.2% 9 20
Sheridan 43.1% 135 27 20% 6 14
Uinta 29.4% 45 9 20% 3 9
Carbon 32% 24 5 20.8% 4 7
Sublette 28.8% 34 7 20.6% 1 4
Washakie 47.5% 19 4 21.1% 1 3
Platte 29.1% 16 3 18.8% 1 3
Johnson 30.3% 20 4 20% 1 2
7 Counties w/vote totals but no mail-in numbers 37.8% 594 ? ? 22 59
4 Other counties ? ? ? ? 8 15
Statewide ? ? ? ? 97 280

In this more normal scenario, Hillary Supporters win zero counties (plus 1 to 4 counties where no votes are known).

So the 11% win giving a 7-7 delegate tie would have been
a 31% win giving a 9-5 delegate advantage to Bernie Supporters.

And this is just with these twelve counties. If the other counties follow the same pattern it would have been a 37% win giving Bernie Supporters a 10-4 advantage.

All of which matters a lot to the media and pundits, even the ones who keep trying to write off Bernie Sanders' campaign.

P.S. I also have data on Bernie Supporter mail-in's in those twelve counties. It was 26.5%.

WHAT TO DO
What needs to be done is an audit of the mail-in's to find out which are valid. Wyoming has clear rules/restrictions on absentee ballots.

Sign this petition on MoveOn (and ask MoveOn at the top of the page to endorse it too)
Another petition is on WhiteHouse.Gov (there may be others, so let me know). Go and sign them.
Also, if you have data on the other 11 counties, let me know.