Thursday, February 11, 2016

Data on Why Bernie Sanders Will Win in Heavily Non-White States

If you believed many pundits and people from the Hillary Clinton campaign, she has 80% support among blacks (another poll with similar info) and therefore Bernie Sanders is doomed.

But these are old polls (August and November 2015).

And they are no surprise.

The first 11 months of 2015 the coverage on CBS/NBC/ABC national news:
Candidate Minutes
Clinton 113
Sanders 10

For years Hillary Clinton has had near 100% name recognition. 4 months after Sanders announced his campaign, 38% still knew too little about him to even give him a favorability rating.

We need CURRENT polls from Nevada and South Carolina.

Here is why there will be none in Nevada. There are similar reasons why you may get few to no polls for South Carolina.

(Feb 12 EDIT: One Nevada poll (from the GOP) just published. It shows Bernie TIED with Hillary)

There is other useful.

Look at the recent election exit polls of New Hampshire (and to a lesser extent Iowa).

In the New Hampshire Primary which Bernie Sanders won 60% to 38%, CBS exit polls showed
Bernie Hillary
White (93%) 61% 37%
Non-White (7%) 49% 50%

In New Hampshire 7% was non-white. Nevada has 35% non-whites and South Carolina registered Democrats are 44% non-white. If Nevada and South Carolina voters felt the same (based on their race) towards Hillary/Bernie,
then Bernie Sanders will get a
15 point win in Nevada and a 10 point win in South Carolina
Based on the data from this article about Nevada's Hispanic voter turnout, using that data which suggests a 27% non-white vote this would mean an even larger 18 point win for Bernie.

What about Iowa? NBC exit polls showed
Bernie Hillary
White (91%) 46% 49%
Non-White (9%) 34% 58%

If Nevada and South Carolina voters voted like Iowans (assuming anyone really votes solely based on their race), Hillary Clinton gets a

12 point win in Nevada and a 14 point win in South Carolina
(The above Nevada Hispanic turnout alternative reduces it to a 10 point win in Nevada)

Even this situation when Bernie was still being ignored by the media and the GOP competition, whit is not the 60 point blowout implied by the 80% black support claims.

So which result is more likely, voters acting like they did on Feb 1st or Feb 9th?

Campaigns get momentum, particularly in Bernie Sanders case where the media has ignored him (see above). The media is no longer ignoring Bernie Sanders. Particularly when he tied the all-time 24-hour fundraising record of 6 million dollars by taking 10 seconds to ask the people watching his NH victory speech to donate.

Caveats: Individual voters in South Carolina and Nevada won't have identical concerns as New Hampshire or Iowa. Both campaigns will do different things in these upcoming states than they did in New Hampshire. Particularly if Bernie Sanders wins in Nevada. The exit polls are samples, not the entire population of people who voted in this primary.

But the exit polls from voters is better than no information.

Less useful data: national polls. Pollees are asked about candidates even though they won't vote for months. They have much less time and reason to become informed now. Too many things will happen to change their minds.

Based on demographics and recent exit poll data,

I expect Bernie to have at least a 10 point win in Nevada.

This will only reinforce the likelihood of a victory in South Carolina.

For good non-data focused arguments supporting the overall claims in this post, read here and here.

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